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We are a reality-based economic forecasting service tracking all key U.S. indicators ahead of release. We rely exclusively on the experiences of real business people in the center of the economic storm who are the true eyewitnesses to the economy's every move. No pundits, no spin – only facts and insights!

Latest Outlook

We have the best sources on the planet ... and they alerted our readers to expect a June jobs surge the week before markets were "surprised" by the way-above-consensus data!

Companies again picked up the pace of hiring in June, taking pains to grab what they could from a tight labor pool – loosened somewhat by the annual stampede that occurs when schools let out for summer, recruiters say.

Workers are also gaining confidence and are beginning to test greener pastures – and as the job churn builds it leaves holes for increasingly desperate employers to fill.

Demand has been strong of late, with job growth impeded mainly by tight labor pools – and with that loosening a bit, June payrolls could be quite a marvel to behold.

Negotiating power has shifted to workers across the board, aided in part by pending minimum wage increases in key states like California, where the early sounding is that the minimum wage hike will be more of a jobs enhancer than a jobs killer.
Employers, willingly or not, are starting to get ahead of the wage curve for fear of losing workers – and, so far, recruiters see nothing to support the Congressional Budget Office’s assertion that a minimum wage increase would mean lost jobs.

If anything, more pay expands the labor pool by providing an incentive to work, while too little pay creates disincentives to work and pushes people into the underground economy or keeps them on the dole.

Employers again are offering incentives to recruit and retain workers – and the more enlightened among them now engage in job training in response to skills mismatches.

The flipside is that anyone basing hiring strategies in a kneejerk approach to a 6.3% jobless rate is likely to end up understaffed, under-producing, and underwater. 

So there’s a lot to be said for a joke that’s been making the rounds: The CFO asks the CEO: “What happens if we invest in developing our people and they leave us?” To which the wiser CEO replies: “What happens if we don't, and they stay?”


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